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Is Bitcoin Nearing Its 2025 Peak? Analyzing Post-Halving Price Trends

luckyfafa666  · 2025-09-26 ·  a day ago
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Are we nearing the peak of the current Bitcoin cycle?


In previous cycles, the time from halving to peak was about 525–532 days. We’re now roughly 520 days out from the 2024 Bitcoin halving. It doesn’t feel like we’re at the top yet, but did we already hit it at $125k? Or is there still potential to reach $140k?


This bull run feels slower than past ones—where’s the usual euphoria and nonstop pumps?

8 Answer

  • Too many people are 'aware' of crypto's cyclic history. This is going to be painfully beaten out of the market now. One thing you did correctly mention... there is no euphoria, no real excitement, and... MOST importantly... there are barely any new people learning crypto!! So its just not likely the market is going to have its mega bull OR bear market without new people's money.

  • Honestly, I think we might have already seen the top at $125k. This cycle’s moves are way slower, and without that usual euphoria, it feels like the market is exhausted. $140k could happen, but only if some unexpected catalyst comes in.

  • This cycle feels similar to 2021 — we reached near all-time highs in April of that year, but the actual peak didn’t come until later. It looks like this run could be shaping up the same way.

  • Honestly, I think we might have already seen the top at $125k. This cycle’s moves are way slower, and without that usual euphoria, it feels like the market is exhausted. $140k could happen, but only if some unexpected catalyst comes in.

  • Looking at historical Bitcoin cycles, there’s definitely a pattern tied to halvings. In 2012 and 2016, the time from halving to the cycle peak was roughly 525–532 days, and the price action typically showed a sharp euphoria phase toward the end. Right now, we’re around 520 days out from the 2024 halving, so technically, we are in that timeframe where a peak could emerge soon.


    That said, every cycle has its quirks. This bull run has been noticeably slower and more subdued compared to the frenzied rallies in 2017 or 2021. There hasn’t been the same kind of “pump after pump” euphoria, which suggests that either the peak is still ahead but will be more drawn-out, or we’ve already hit a near-term top around $125k. Macro conditions play a role here too—interest rates, inflation, and institutional adoption can all stretch or compress these cycles.


    Another thing to consider is that Bitcoin is increasingly treated as a digital reserve asset. That means the volatility we saw in earlier cycles may not repeat in the same way. Smaller, steadier climbs could dominate before a final spike.


    So, is there room for $140k? Possibly, but it may not happen in the same explosive style as previous runs. The market might consolidate or range for a while, building momentum for a final push. Watching volume, on-chain metrics, and macro signals will give the clearest hints. Either way, this cycle is definitely feeling different, and patience might be key.

  • Too many people are 'aware' of crypto's cyclic history. This is going to be painfully beaten out of the market now. One thing you did correctly mention... there is no euphoria, no real excitement, and... MOST importantly... there are barely any new people learning crypto!! So its just not likely the market is going to have its mega bull OR bear market without new people's money.

  • I’m not convinced we’ve peaked yet. We’re still right around that historical halving-to-peak window, and Bitcoin loves a strong finish. I could see $140k if momentum picks up in the next few weeks—just keep an eye on volume spikes.

  • Hold on, let me consult my crystal ball

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