Gemini exits UK, EU, and Australia, cuts workforce

Key Points

• Gemini, a major US crypto exchange, exits UK, EU, and Australia to focus on the US market.
• Workforce reduced by 25% amid operational challenges and AI-driven efficiency.
• The company is doubling down on its prediction market platform, Gemini Predictions.
• Prediction markets are gaining momentum, showing significant growth in trading volume.
• Gemini aims to leverage the US capital market strength while navigating global crypto downturns.

Gemini Shifts Strategy: Exiting Global Markets to Focus on US Growth

In a bold strategic pivot, Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange founded in 2015 in the United States, has announced its exit from the United Kingdom, European Union, and Australian markets. The decision comes alongside a 25% reduction in its workforce, signaling a major shift in the company's global ambitions.

Gemini’s leadership cited two primary reasons for this dramatic move: the rise of artificial intelligence improving operational efficiency and the increasingly challenging business environment in these foreign markets. According to the company, AI advancements are allowing engineers to operate at  100x  efficiency, reshaping how resources are allocated and reducing the need for a large global team.

These foreign markets have proven hard to win in for various reasons,  Gemini stated in its announcement.  We find ourselves stretched thin with a level of organizational and operational complexity that drives our cost structure up and slows us down. We don’t have the demand in these regions to justify them. The reality is that America has the world’s greatest capital markets.

This move underscores a broader trend among crypto exchanges, where global expansion can sometimes collide with local regulatory hurdles and operational inefficiencies. Gemini’s decision is not just about cutting costs—it’s a focused pivot toward growth areas where the company sees the most opportunity.

The Rise of Prediction Markets: Gemini’s New Focus

Alongside its market exit, Gemini is placing a strong emphasis on prediction markets, particularly its Gemini Predictions platform, which launched in December 2025. This platform allows users to trade on event outcomes, ranging from elections to economic indicators, offering a new avenue for crypto enthusiasts to engage with digital markets beyond traditional assets.

Gemini’s leadership believes that prediction markets could become as significant—or even larger—than today’s capital markets. Since its launch, Gemini Predictions has amassed over 10,000 users and recorded $24 million in trading volume, signaling early traction in a sector that is still emerging in mainstream crypto trading.

The appeal of prediction markets has grown, particularly during high-stakes periods like elections. For instance, in the third quarter of 2024, prediction market trading volumes surged by 565% quarter-on-quarter, reaching approximately $3.1 billion during the US presidential election. This surge demonstrates the growing appetite for event-driven trading platforms and Gemini’s intent to capture a significant share of this market.

Daily trading activity in prediction markets has remained robust, ranging from $277 million to $550 million as of January 2026, according to Dune data. While Gemini is carving its niche, the sector remains competitive, with Polymarket and Kalshi dominating the landscape, holding 37% and 26% of daily trading volume, respectively.

Challenges in Global Crypto Markets

Gemini’s retreat from international markets highlights the ongoing challenges facing the crypto industry. The sector has been under pressure due to declining digital asset prices, regulatory uncertainty, and stalled legislation such as the CLARITY Act, which was expected to provide a framework for US crypto market operations.

Despite these hurdles, Gemini remains optimistic about its domestic prospects. By concentrating on the US market, the exchange aims to leverage the deep capital markets, higher user engagement, and regulatory clarity that the region offers. This strategic focus allows the company to streamline operations, invest in emerging technologies like AI, and expand innovative products like prediction markets without the distractions of complex international operations.

Gemini’s Workforce Strategy and AI Integration

The company’s announcement also emphasized artificial intelligence as a key driver for organizational efficiency. Gemini is using AI to automate labor-intensive processes, enabling engineers to accomplish tasks at exponentially higher speeds. This approach has allowed the company to optimize its workforce, reduce overhead costs, and refocus on core US-based initiatives.

By integrating AI into operational processes, Gemini is setting a precedent for how crypto exchanges can combine technology and strategic market focus to adapt to changing market conditions. This model could serve as a blueprint for other exchanges facing similar global challenges.

Looking Ahead: What Gemini’s Exit Means for Investors

Gemini’s strategic retreat and pivot toward prediction markets are likely to have ripple effects across the crypto ecosystem:

• Increased Focus on US Users: Resources will be concentrated on enhancing the user experience, security, and trading opportunities for American investors.
• Growth of Prediction Markets: Gemini aims to become a significant player in this emerging sector, challenging established platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
• AI-Driven Efficiency: By leveraging AI, Gemini may achieve faster innovation cycles and more agile product development.
• Market Consolidation: Exiting difficult foreign markets may allow Gemini to better navigate regulatory risks and economic uncertainties.

For crypto investors, these changes may signal a safer, more focused approach from a historically ambitious exchange.

FAQ

Q1: Why is Gemini leaving the UK, EU, and Australia?
Gemini cited regulatory challenges, operational complexity, and insufficient market demand in these regions. The company is instead focusing on its home market in the US.

Q2: How many employees were affected by the workforce reduction?
Gemini announced a 25% reduction in staff, driven partly by AI integration and operational streamlining.

Q3: What are prediction markets and why are they important to Gemini?
Prediction markets allow users to trade on the outcome of events. Gemini sees this sector as a potential growth area that could rival traditional capital markets.

Q4: How has Gemini Predictions performed since launch?
Since its December 2025 launch, Gemini Predictions has recorded over 10,000 users and $24 million in trading volume.

Q5: Who currently dominates the prediction market sector?
Polymarket and Kalshi dominate, holding approximately 37% and 26% of daily trading volumes, respectively.

Q6: What does this mean for global crypto markets?
Gemini’s exit highlights the challenges of international expansion for crypto exchanges, especially amid regulatory uncertainty and declining digital asset prices.

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