Mixed Year for US IPOs as Crypto Weighs on Market Performance

Crypto and AI Weigh on Wall Street: Why US IPOs Fell Behind the S&P 500 in 2025

Investors chasing fresh public listings in 2025 would have earned less than those who simply stayed invested in the S&P 500, as volatile crypto and uneven AI debuts dragged overall IPO performance lower.

A Year of High Expectations and Modest Returns

The US IPO market delivered a year of contrasts in 2025. While the long-anticipated reopening of public markets brought several high-profile listings, returns failed to keep pace with broader equities. Companies that went public during the year posted a weighted average gain of 13.9%, trailing the S&P 500’s roughly 16% advance. Crypto and artificial intelligence offerings, once seen as engines of growth, played a central role in that underperformance.

Crypto Listings Reignite, but Volatility Follows

Optimism surged early in the year as regulatory clarity and a more supportive political environment encouraged Wall Street to back crypto-related listings with significant capital. Major digital asset firms finally made their way to public markets, raising billions and generating headlines. Yet the excitement proved uneven, and in many cases short-lived, as sharp price swings and shifting sentiment weighed on post-IPO performance.

AI IPOs Face Reality Checks

Artificial intelligence was another focal point for investors, but several AI-linked companies struggled to meet expectations. Businesses tied to data infrastructure and enterprise AI solutions failed to sustain early momentum after their debuts, as investors reassessed lofty valuations and questioned the speed at which AI-driven revenues could translate into durable profits.

Circle’s Blockbuster Debut and Subsequent Slide

One of the year’s most talked-about crypto IPOs was stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group. Its $1.05 billion listing in June delivered a spectacular first day, with shares soaring after pricing at $31. The rally, however, faded as the broader crypto market cooled, and the stock retreated significantly from its post-IPO highs by year-end.

Gemini and Bullish Highlight the Risks

Not every crypto debut enjoyed even a brief surge. Gemini’s September IPO quickly turned into one of the weakest performers of the year, with shares tumbling sharply after an early rise. Bullish followed a similar path, delivering dramatic first-day gains in August only to slide back toward its IPO price months later, reinforcing concerns about sustainability in crypto valuations.

Big Deals Outperform Smaller Offerings

Performance gaps were also evident when comparing deal sizes. Larger IPOs proved far more resilient, while mid-sized offerings struggled to attract lasting investor demand. Listings valued above $1 billion significantly outperformed those in the $500 million to $1 billion range, reflecting a clear preference for scale and stability.

Winners and Losers Define a Selective Market

Medical equipment provider Medline emerged as one of the standout success stories, with its shares climbing strongly after its massive public debut. In contrast, gas exporter Venture Global became one of the year’s biggest disappointments, as its downsized IPO was followed by a steep decline in share price.

A Return to Fundamentals in Public Markets

Market observers agree that 2025 marked a decisive shift back to fundamentals. Investors became more selective, rewarding companies with clear strategies, strong operations, and credible growth paths, while punishing those reliant on hype or speculative narratives.

What 2025 Taught IPO Investors

The overarching lesson from 2025 is that the IPO market is open, but unforgiving. In a year shaped by crypto volatility and AI uncertainty, outperforming the S&P 500 required more than a compelling theme. Only companies with strong execution and long-term vision managed to earn lasting investor confidence.

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