A widely followed crypto analyst who accurately called bitcoin's October all-time high and subsequent selloff now warns the price could drop to $54,000. Doctor Profit, a pseudonymous trader, says bitcoin is forming a bear flag pattern on the daily chart that points to an initial decline to the $54,000–$56,000 range, with a possible further leg down to $40,000–$50,000. The warning comes as bitcoin already faces headwinds from a hawkish Federal Reserve, rising bond yields, and concerns about Strategy (MSTR).
The bear flag pattern
Doctor Profit outlined the setup on X, noting that bitcoin's sharp drop from May's high of $82,000 to under $60,000 by June 5 formed the flagpole. The subsequent relief bounce to around $68,000 created the flag itself. A bear flag is confirmed when the price breaks below the lower boundary of the flag, and the measured move typically equals the height of the pole. In this case, that would imply a decline to roughly $54,000.
"My target is a dump to 54-56k region first before we move sideways once again and afterwards another leg down and the bottom is close in the region between 40-50k in my opinion," the analyst wrote.
Market context and caveats
Chart pattern analysis is subjective, and bear flags can fail, leading prices to reverse higher instead. Still, Doctor Profit's view finds some support in the options market. Last week, traders bought put options, signaling expectations of a near-term slide to $52,000. Bitcoin currently trades near $64,000, pressured by persistent ETF outflows that have now extended into a sixth consecutive week.
The broader environment remains uncertain. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has boosted bond yields, making risk assets like crypto less attractive. Additionally, concerns about Strategy's preferred-stock meltdown have added to the negative sentiment. Bitcoin's recent price action has been stuck near $64,000, with the bear flag pattern now threatening a breakdown.
Other market developments
In other crypto news, XRP briefly lost the $1.14 support level before buyers staged a sharp rebound. Ethereum validators are considering a new proposal to fund projects with up to 10% of staking rewards. Meanwhile, bitcoin developers are working on fixing the replace-by-fee feature to improve transaction efficiency. Talks between the US and Iran continued, but crypto markets largely sat out any rally from the diplomatic progress.
Doctor Profit previously gained recognition for calling bitcoin's peak at $126,000 and the subsequent downturn. His latest bearish forecast adds to the growing list of challenges for the largest cryptocurrency as it struggles to regain upward momentum.