Bitcoin broke above the $64,000 resistance level on Tuesday, reaching a daily high of $65,511 before settling at $64,858, nearly flat on the day. However, a death cross formation on the charts keeps the macro trend bearish, and prediction market traders are pricing in 66.6% odds that Bitcoin falls to $55,000 before recovering to $84,000. The conflicting signals leave the market at a crossroads.
Macro Backdrop Supports Risk Assets
Wall Street posted a solid Tuesday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.39% and the Nasdaq climbing 0.67%. The June Producer Price Index came in below expectations, with producer prices falling 0.3% month-over-month, driven largely by a drop in gasoline prices. This has reduced the odds of a July Federal Reserve rate hike from 31% last week to just 12.3% today, according to CME FedWatch. Lower or steady interest rates generally favor risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, fell to 16.5 points, indicating trader confidence and calm. Major banks including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Citi reported second-quarter earnings that beat analyst estimates. The overall macroeconomic environment is risk-on and quietly optimistic.
Chart Shows a Breakout Without Conviction
Bitcoin's move above $64,000 is significant after spending nearly two weeks being rejected at that level. However, the price sits only about 5% above a descending trend channel that has been intact since May's highs near $82,000. A 5% drop from current levels would put Bitcoin back inside that channel, giving bears control again.
The aggregate indicator score is at -36%, with a death cross—the 50-day moving average trading below the 200-day moving average—highlighting a bearish long-term trend. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 23.4, below the 25 threshold that signals a strong trend, but the bearish trend is still in place. On a positive note, the ADX is transitioning from bearish dominance (Di-) to bullish dominance (Di+), indicating a potential regime shift. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55.7, neutral to slightly bullish, with room to rise before hitting overbought territory above 70.
Bullish and Bearish Cases
The bullish case relies on the supportive macro backdrop and technical signals like the ADX transition and RSI room to climb. If Bitcoin holds above $64,000 and confirms the breakout, next targets are around $66,500 to $67,600, with $70,000 possible if momentum builds. Additionally, Eric Trump, son of former President Donald Trump, has been publicly promoting Ethereum, signaling continued interest from politically connected investors.
On the bearish side, Fibonacci analysis places Bitcoin at the 100% level of a bearish leg from $64,657 to $61,246, where sellers often reappear. The golden zone of 50%–61.8% retracement at $62,952–$63,354 has been cleared on the way up but becomes support if bulls lose grip. On the prediction market Myriad, traders assign 66.6% odds that Bitcoin drops to $55,000 before hitting $84,000, a 2-to-1 lean toward further downside. Myriad traders have recently been more accurate than chart optimists in predicting Bitcoin's direction.