Bitcoin (BTC) remained largely unmoved near $63,800 despite escalating U.S. airstrikes on Iran-linked targets, showing a clear decoupling from traditional assets that saw sharp swings on Monday. The cryptocurrency slipped just 0.3% in 24 hours but posted a 2% weekly gain, while Ethereum (ETH) traded around $1,800 with a similar weekly rise. Most altcoins also stayed in a wait-and-see mode, with XRP at $1.09 and Dogecoin at $0.07.
Traditional Markets React Sharply
Gold dropped as much as 1.6% to $4,050 an ounce intraday, while Brent crude surged 4% above $79 a barrel on fears that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about 20% of global seaborne oil. Global bond yields rose and the MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell 1.6%. The volatility followed U.S. Central Command’s announcement of additional strikes on Iran-linked targets in response to attacks on container ships, with Iran warning it might shut the strait until further notice.
Rate Hike Fears Weigh on Gold and Bonds
Markets quickly priced in the risk of prolonged high interest rates, as rising oil prices could stoke inflation and delay Federal Reserve rate cuts—or even trigger further hikes. The Fed’s June meeting minutes showed some members had discussed the possibility of rate increases. Higher real yields dented gold’s appeal and pressured bond prices, but Bitcoin sidestepped this repricing.
Bitcoin’s New Drivers: Dollar Liquidity and Tech Cycles
Analysts noted that Bitcoin now responds more to dollar liquidity and semiconductor cycles than to geopolitical shocks. A notable link was South Korea’s KOSPI, which fell 7% as SK Hynix plunged 12% after a prior 13% rally in its U.S. listing—a rally that had also boosted Bitcoin over the weekend. Despite Monday’s drop, crypto markets showed little directional change, reinforcing the view that Bitcoin is increasingly independent from traditional risk assets. The weekend’s military conflict, broad selloff in gold and bonds, and hawkish Fed repricing all failed to push BTC out of its tight range, a stark contrast to past reactions to Strait of Hormuz headlines.