Bitcoin traded near $65,000 on Monday morning, recovering from a dip below $63,000 late last week, as geopolitical uncertainty around the Iran ceasefire deal and a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook kept markets in check. Other major cryptocurrencies held steady, with Ethereum at $1,750 and Solana at $73. Meanwhile, CME Group filed a lawsuit against the CFTC arguing that perpetual futures are swaps, not futures, a case that could reshape U.S. crypto derivatives regulation.
Bitcoin Steady Amid Iran Deal Setback
Bitcoin edged up to $65,000 on Monday, recouping some of Friday's losses but remaining roughly flat on the week. The price action was relatively uneventful, which some analysts consider a win given that Strategy's STRC hit an all-time low of $83 on Thursday before rebounding to $88, and Bitcoin ETFs saw $227 million in net outflows last week. The Fear and Greed Index stayed in the Fear zone throughout the week.
The Iran ceasefire deal, signed Friday, initially sent oil prices down 9% as it opened permanent talks in Switzerland. However, over the weekend, Iran ordered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz again, reviving supply risks that the agreement was meant to eliminate. Combined with a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve and the STRC selloff, Bitcoin and crypto face a precarious start to the week. For now, Bitcoin is consolidating above the low $60,000s but unable to reclaim weekly highs, with the range likely to hold until the Iran situation and Fed policy become clearer.
CME Sues CFTC Over Perpetual Futures Classification
CME Group, the largest U.S. derivatives exchange, filed a lawsuit against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Thursday, seeking to vacate the agency's approval of Kalshi's perpetual futures—the first such product cleared in the U.S. in late May. CME argues that the CFTC failed to properly weigh Kalshi's application or the consequences of approving perps, violating the Dodd-Frank Act. Substantively, CME contends that perpetual futures are swaps under Dodd-Frank, not futures, which would subject them to stricter rules.
Beneath the legal arguments lies a competitive motive: CME says these perps threaten its long-dated futures business, a core part of its operations. The case arrives alongside a Michigan ruling that sports prediction markets are not swaps and fall outside the CFTC's jurisdiction, challenging the agency on two fronts. If CME wins and perps are reclassified as swaps, the approvals for Kalshi and Coinbase to offer regulated U.S. perps could be reopened, and prediction market clearances could follow. With courts split, the issue is headed for appeals and likely the Supreme Court.
Macro and Market Movers
Crypto majors were mixed Monday morning: Bitcoin up 1% at $65,000, Ethereum up 2% at $1,750, Solana down 1% at $73.50, and Hyperliquid's HYPE flat at $68.25. DEXE led gainers with a 26% rise, followed by ENA at 5% and OKB at 6%. Oil rose 1% to $77, gold slipped 0.5% to $4,225, and stock futures were flat.
Franklin Templeton filed for ETFs that reinvest U.S. stock dividends into Bitcoin, a novel structure that channels dividend income into Bitcoin accumulation instead of cash payouts. The Federal Reserve proposed customer identification rules for stablecoin issuers, requiring them to verify customers as a federal framework for dollar-backed tokens takes shape. In a notable security incident, Jaredfromsubway.eth, Ethereum's most notorious MEV sandwich bot, lost over $7.5 million after an attacker lured it into approving fake trading routes and drained its WETH, USDC, and USDT, laundering some through Tornado Cash.
The Bitcoin ETFs saw $6.35 billion in net outflows over the past 30 days, including $227 million last week, while Ethereum ETFs had $10 million in outflows. Meme coins were mostly green, with DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE up 1% each, while Solangeles surged 180% and GTAVI gained 65% on Solana. Charles Schwab plans to introduce prediction markets with Cboe, allowing clients to wager on the S&P 500's performance.