Bitcoin jumped about 3.6% to near $64,800 on Wednesday after U.S. inflation cooled more than expected, sharply reducing market odds of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. June headline inflation fell to 3.5% from 4.2%, and core inflation eased to 2.6% from 2.9%, taking the strongest argument for another hike off the table. Implied odds of a rate increase collapsed from 43% to 13% following the release, and the two-year Treasury yield dropped six basis points.
Inflation data reshapes rate expectations
The June CPI print showed broad-based cooling, with the core measure—stripping out food and energy—falling to 2.6% from 2.9%. This relief is not just cheaper energy, analysts said, and it removes the immediate pressure for the Fed to raise rates. Higher rates hurt bitcoin and risk assets because cash and Treasury bonds start paying a decent, guaranteed return, so investors have less reason to hold something that pays no yield and swings 5% in a session. Cooler inflation means the Fed has less reason to raise, so that pull weakens and money flows back the other way.
Crypto and equities rally in tandem
Bitcoin rose 3.6% over 24 hours and is up 3.3% on the week, with about $31 billion changing hands. Ether was the standout at nearly $1,880, up 5.3% on the day and 7.1% over seven sessions. Hyperliquid's HYPE gained 6.4% to $67, XRP added 3.7% to $1.10, Solana rose 3.6% to $78, dogecoin climbed 2.9% and BNB added 1.9% to $579. Equities took the same cue: MSCI's Asia Pacific gauge climbed 2.3%, its biggest advance in a month, with technology shares leading. South Korea's Kospi jumped 8.2%, and SK Hynix rose 13% in Seoul after its American depositary receipts surged 27%.
Oil surges on geopolitical tensions
Elsewhere, brent crude advanced 1% to above $85 a barrel, a third consecutive day of gains, after President Trump threatened further strikes on Iran and the U.S. resumed its blockade of Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude has now surged 11% in two sessions, adding a layer of uncertainty for global markets.
Analysts eye September FOMC for next cues
"Bitcoin remains a rate-sensitive risk asset rather than a macro hedge," said Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, who said the print reduces immediate downside pressure without building a durable breakout. Core inflation at 2.6% is still above the Fed's 2% target, so the print buys the central bank room to hold rather than reason to cut. Ko pointed to the September FOMC meeting as the next real macro test, along with the direction of the dollar and whether bitcoin ETF flows can sustain themselves.