Answer Box: Bitcoin (BTC) stabilized around $64,000 this week, rising 0.2%, as spot ETF inflows ended an eight-week outflow streak with $197.4 million in net inflows. The market remains in a fear zone, with BTC facing key resistance at $65,000. Ethereum (ETH) outperformed, gaining 1.2% to trade in the $1,786–$1,805 range.
Macro Headwinds: Hawkish Fed and Geopolitical Tensions
The Federal Reserve’s June FOMC minutes, released July 8, revealed a hawkish tilt. The committee voted 11-1 to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but internal divisions were stark. Officials cited tariff impacts, supply chain disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz, and strong demand as reasons inflation remains above the 2% target. Forward guidance was significantly pared back, raising the probability of rate hikes. CME FedWatch data shows a 35.8% chance of a July hike and a 72.1% probability of at least one hike by September.
Geopolitical risks escalated as the Middle East ceasefire collapsed. Iran attacked commercial oil tankers and military bases, prompting the U.S. to end the truce and retaliate. Brent crude surged 9.3% from $69.56 to $76.01 per barrel, though it remains down 18.14% over 30 days. In contrast, gold fell 1.0% to $4,119 per ounce, as the U.S. dollar index rose 1.44% to 100.97, with investors favoring yield expectations over war premiums.
U.S. stocks showed mixed performance. The Dow dipped 0.26%, the S&P 500 fell 0.79%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.55%. Semiconductor stocks saw extreme volatility: SK Hynix, after a $26.5 billion ADR listing, surged 12.8% on its first day but plunged 9.3% the next, nearly erasing all gains. Nvidia fell 3.52%, while Apple hit a new all-time high.
Crypto Market: BTC Holds Support, Altcoins Diverge
BTC traded in a $61,306–$64,700 range, ending the week near $64,000. Market sentiment improved slightly from extreme fear (23) to fear (28). Total crypto market cap edged up 0.3%, but excluding the top 10 tokens, altcoins fell 1.6%, highlighting a divergence where gains concentrated in leading assets.
Spot BTC ETFs recorded $197.4 million in net inflows, ending eight consecutive weeks of outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $86.83 million on July 10. Spot ETH ETFs also saw $84.4 million in inflows. However, the inflows have not yet pushed BTC decisively above $65,000, suggesting institutional buying is more about stabilization than a full return.
On-Chain and Infrastructure Developments
Stablecoin supply showed limited growth. USDT’s market share remained high at 58.98%, while USDC’s market cap rose 0.51% to $73.42 billion. Robinhood Chain, launched two weeks ago, saw TVL exceed $132 million, driven by Ethena injecting ~$50 million in stablecoins into Morpho’s USDG pool. Daily active users hit a record 217,000, but tokenized real-world assets remain nascent at ~$12.8 million.
Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for $216 million to pay dividends, its first large-scale sale. It still holds 843,775 BTC and $2.55 billion in cash. CEO Michael Saylor stated that if BTC appreciates over 3.3% annually, dividends can be sustained indefinitely. In institutional infrastructure, Swift launched a blockchain shared ledger pilot with 17 banks, South Korea’s Toss partnered with Optimism for a won-pegged stablecoin trial, and Gauntlet raised $125 million from SBI Holdings for DeFi vault expansion.