Bitcoin briefly breached $65,000 on July 14 after U.S. inflation data came in lower than expected, but failed to hold the level, raising questions about whether the move was a short-term trap. The June CPI fell to 3.5% year-over-year, below the 3.8% forecast, while core CPI dropped to 2.6%, also missing estimates. The data eased fears of further Fed rate hikes, boosting risk assets across the board.
Bitcoin Faces Key Resistance as ETF Flows Turn Positive
Bitcoin surged past $65,000 following the CPI release, but quickly retreated. Analyst Killa warned that if BTC cannot stabilize above $65,000, it could be a bull trap, leading to a retest of $60,000. Loma noted that while the recent low shows stronger support, the bottom needs more confirmation. He will not chase unless BTC closes above $67,200 on the daily chart, and sees $54,000–$55,000 as a more attractive buying zone. Ted highlighted that the CVDD price sits at $48,500, a level that marked bottoms in 2018 and 2022, so a drop below $50,000 cannot be ruled out. Murphy, using the MVRV ratio, argued that the bottom is likely above $50,000, making those waiting for $30,000 or $20,000 too pessimistic.
ETF flows turned positive on July 14, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing net inflows of $181 million, led by BlackRock's IBIT at $139 million. This reversed the previous day's $425 million outflow, signaling renewed institutional interest.
Ethereum Shows Strength, Institutional Support Grows
Ether outperformed Bitcoin, rising 6.48% to near $1,900. BIT noted that ETH is forming a double-bottom pattern, and if it holds above recent lows, technicals could improve. Lower inflation data boosted risk appetite, and Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $58.34 million on July 14, with all ten funds seeing no outflows. This marks a potential shift after eight months of outflows.
Fundamentals are also improving. Bitmine's latest quarterly report showed 98% of revenue from ETH staking, with projected annualized returns of $284 million once fully staked. EthSystems, founded by former Ethereum Foundation privacy working group members, launched with support from Bitmine, Sharplink, and Joe Lubin, aiming to advance institutional-grade privacy finance on Ethereum.
Axie co-founder Jihoz noted that the Dencun upgrade slashed layer-2 costs but cut Ethereum mainnet fee revenue by 99%, weakening ETH's value capture. He would consider buying ETH near $1,400.
Key Levels and Token Unlocks to Watch
Market focus remains on whether BTC can hold $65,000 and break $67,200, and whether ETF inflows continue. Upcoming U.S. PPI and retail sales data could further support risk assets if they show continued cooling. Several token unlocks occur on July 15: Sei (SEI) unlocks 55.56 million tokens (~$2.8 million), Starknet (STRK) unlocks 127 million (~$3.9 million), Connex (CONX) unlocks 1.32 million (~$13.52 million), and Arbitrum (ARB) unlocks 92.65 million (~$8.5 million) on July 16.
Wall Street Embraces Risk, AI Spending Surges
U.S. stock futures rose, with Nasdaq futures up 0.8%. ASML reported Q2 net sales of €9.3 billion, beating estimates of €8.88 billion, and CEO Christophe Fouquet cited "extremely strong" AI chip demand. ASML plans to boost EUV and DUV lithography capacity by 30% over two years, sending its after-hours shares up 6.45%. The 3x Long Semiconductor ETF gained 7.87%.
Bank earnings impressed: Goldman Sachs posted EPS of $20.98, surging 9% on a 72% jump in equity trading. JPMorgan and Bank of America rose 2.5% and 1.88%, respectively. Citigroup fell 5.29% despite strong revenue, as management maintained investment plans. IBM plunged 25.21% after warning on revenue and profit due to clients shifting budgets to AI servers and storage, highlighting the cannibalization of traditional IT by AI infrastructure.
Crypto-related stocks rallied with Bitcoin: Coinbase rose 2.62%, Strategy gained 5.95% to $97.58, and Robinhood added 3.27%. Ark Invest bought $13.9 million in Circle stock and $1.5 million in Block, while selling $3.2 million in Robinhood. Mizuho downgraded Circle to underperform, cutting its target from $85 to $50, citing stablecoin competition.
Asian Chip Stocks Surge on AI Cycle
South Korea's KOSPI surged over 8% intraday, with SK Hynix up 8.83% and Samsung Electronics up 6.27%. Samsung is considering listing ADRs in the U.S. to close the valuation gap with SK Hynix, which has surged 194% this year. Goldman Sachs reiterated a 12,000-point target for KOSPI. However, regulators are discussing raising the minimum margin for single-stock leveraged ETFs from 10 million won to 50 million won after the rapid rally. The Bank of Korea is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points to 2.75% on Thursday, its first hike in about three and a half years.
Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.49%, with Kioxia up 5.79%, Tokyo Electron up 2.70%, and Advantest up 4.35%. Tower Semiconductor announced a $3 billion investment in Japan, including $1 billion from the government, to boost 300mm silicon photonics capacity, with full production expected by Q4 2027.