Answer Box: Bitcoin's daily chart shows a 'descending central extension' phase, with the market expected to consolidate in a range this week. Key levels to watch are resistance at $64,700 and support between $60,950 and $62,000. HYPE's uptrend structure has been damaged after failing to hold above $72.97, and traders are advised to consider short positions if the rebound fails to reclaim that level.
BTC Weekly Outlook: Consolidation with Bearish Bias
Bitcoin's daily chart has formed a 'descending central' structure since the May 6 high of $82,850, with the current (3-4) rebound leg from the July 1 low of $57,820 breaking above the $64,500 resistance. The analyst notes that if the rebound can first clear $64,500 and then $65,700, the probability of a sustained recovery above $57,820 increases. However, the overlapping of the (1-2), (2-3), and (3-4) segments has created a descending center, suggesting the market will likely enter an extension phase with more overlapping segments, leading to a short-term consolidation range.
On the 4-hour chart, the rebound from $57,820 shows a three-wave structure (44-45, 45-46, 46-47). The current (46-47) wave is showing bearish divergence signals from the analyst's quantitative model, indicating a high probability of a technical pullback. If the price pulls back and finds support near the 'endpoint 46' level, another rally targeting $65,700 to $67,300 could follow.
BTC Trading Strategy: Neutral to Bearish
Key levels for the week (July 13-19):
- Resistance: $64,700 (first), $65,700-$67,300 (second), $69,500-$71,000 (third)
- Support: $60,950-$62,000 (first), $57,820 (second), $55,000 (third)
The medium-term strategy remains bearish, with a current short position of 20%. If the price rallies to the $65,700-$67,300 zone and shows topping signals, the short position can be increased to 50%. For short-term traders, three scenarios are outlined:
- Plan A: If the price pulls back from $64,700 and finds support in the $60,950-$62,000 zone with a bottom signal, aggressive traders can open a 15% long position, with a stop-loss and profit target at resistance.
- Plan B: If the price rallies to $65,700-$67,300 and shows a top signal, open a 30% short position, with a stop-loss and profit target at support.
- Plan C: If the price breaks above $65,700 but then pulls back and finds support above $57,820 with a bottom signal, open a 30% long position, with a stop-loss and profit target at resistance.
HYPE Structure Damaged, Key Resistance at $72.97
HYPE's 4-hour chart shows a seven-wave rally from the June 25 low of $58.50 (endpoint 54) to the July 7 high of $72.97 (endpoint 61), forming an 'ascending center' with overlapping waves 55-58. The analyst had warned last week of a high probability of a pullback near $72.97, which played out with a maximum decline of 9.39%.
The current (61-62) adjustment wave has broken below the previous low of endpoint 60 ($68.16), initially damaging the uptrend structure from endpoint 54. The key this week is where endpoint 62 terminates and whether the subsequent rebound can reclaim $72.97.
HYPE Short-Term Trading Strategy
Key levels:
- Resistance: $68-$69.5 (first), $72.97 (second), $76.94 (third)
- Support: $65.5 (first), $60.5-$61.5 (second)
Two strategies are recommended:
- If the (61-62) adjustment ends and the price rebounds above $72.97, stay on the sidelines as it approaches the all-time high resistance at $76.94.
- If the rebound fails to reach $72.97, consider short positions on rallies, with a stop-loss and position size limited to 30%.
Risk Management Reminder
The analyst emphasizes dynamic stop-loss adjustments: set an initial stop-loss at entry, move it to breakeven after a 1% profit, then trail it by 1% for every additional 1% gain to lock in profits. All analysis is based on personal technical models and should not be considered investment advice.