Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) shares each rose roughly 3-4% on Wednesday, even as William Blair slashed its revenue and earnings forecasts for Coinbase. The investment bank cut 2026 revenue estimates by 12% and 2027 estimates by 13%, and reduced adjusted EBITDA projections by 34% for both years. Yet William Blair maintained its 'outperform' rating, arguing that key risks are already priced in and that earnings should trough by the end of 2026 before a rebound in 2027.
Wall Street Splits on Coinbase Outlook
William Blair analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury said investors should stay the course as spot crypto volume bottoms alongside Bitcoin. They expect Coinbase's total trading volume to fall roughly 44% this year to $669 billion before rebounding more than 32% in 2027. The firm sees this cycle as structurally different from 2022, citing spot Bitcoin ETFs, growing institutional flows, and a more mature regulatory environment. They also highlighted Coinbase's Base layer-2 network, retail derivatives, and prediction markets as diversifying revenue sources beyond spot trading—retail derivatives alone crossed $200 million annualized in Q1.
Not everyone was as bullish near term. Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley cut his price target to $155 from $170, keeping a 'neutral' rating. He flagged prediction markets and perpetual futures as the defining story of Q2—the World Cup drove massive growth in prediction market activity—and warned of 'significant investor attention on the perpetual future threat' heading into Q3. Coinbase has fallen nearly 30% this year, alongside a roughly 26% decline in Bitcoin. Circle, which debuted on the NYSE in June 2025 at $31 per share, has dropped about 20% since January.
Bitcoin's 'W' Pattern and On-Chain Signals
Technical analyst John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands indicator, has been flagging a 'W' double-bottom pattern on Bitcoin's daily chart since early July. A double-bottom is a bullish reversal formation defined by two swing lows with a rebound in between; it turns bullish once price clears the resistance at the apex. Bollinger called the setup 'perfectly fractal,' with smaller versions of the same shape nested inside the larger structure, and noted the pattern is also visible on the weekly chart. In a July 6 post, he said if the 'W' completes, he would see it as 'a confirmation of a change in trend,' his clearest public signal yet that the trend may be turning. Bollinger disclosed a long Bitcoin position earlier this year.
Glassnode's latest weekly analysis shows long-term holder capitulation—the main source of selling pressure all year—peaked two weeks ago and has turned down. Buyers showed up at the June lows, with broad accumulation across wallets of all sizes. Bitcoin's inverse relationship with the dollar has deepened, while its correlation with U.S. equities has loosened. Tuesday's soft inflation print moved Bitcoin more sharply than any major equity index. The sticking point remains a lack of sustained spot-driven buying to confirm the recovery. Derivative positions are unwinding, long-term sellers are thinning, and the fear premium in the options market is easing, but capital has not fully arrived. William Blair puts the inflection point at 2027, projecting a 32% rebound in Coinbase trading volume after this year's expected 44% decline.