Some Federal Reserve officials may push for a discussion on reversing last year's rate cuts at the July 28-29 meeting if inflation concerns intensify in the coming weeks, according to Nick Timiraos, a reporter often called the 'Fed whisperer.' The Fed unanimously held rates steady at its first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh last month. Warsh is set to testify before Congress this week, and the central bank will also review June inflation data.
Bond Yields and Oil Surge
The US 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.2393%, a 17-month high, reflecting growing tightening expectations. Fed funds futures now price in 39 basis points of rate hikes by December. Meanwhile, Brent crude jumped 4.5% shortly after the open on news of renewed US-Iran hostilities, highlighting supply disruption fears from the Middle East. Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed it attacked Jordan's Prince Hassan airbase with missiles and drones, setting fuel tanks and ammunition depots ablaze, calling it a first-phase response to a US strike on an Iranian coastal base.
Crypto Market Dips
Bitcoin fell below $64,000, trading at $63,985.20, down 0.30% on the day, per OKX. Ethereum slipped below $1,800 to $1,799.64, a 1.23% decline over 24 hours. The $1,800 level is seen as a key short-term sentiment threshold.
Key Events This Week
Market attention this week will focus on US CPI and PPI data, Fed speeches, and progress on the CLARITY Act, according to Fox Business crypto reporter. Fed Chair Warsh is expected to deliver the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress and face questions. Other Fed officials including Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller, Michael Barr, and Lisa Cook, along with regional bank presidents, are also scheduled to speak. The CLARITY Act amendment is being discussed to merge versions from the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees, with core provisions still under negotiation and ethics agreements not yet finalized. A full Senate vote could come as early as the week of the 20th.
BUIDL and Strive Updates
BUIDL's Avalanche chain scale surpassed $900 million, growing 105% in the past week, with total BUIDL scale reaching $2.869 billion, up 21.11% in 30 days. The tokenized fund backed by US Treasuries and cash equivalents is a key indicator in the expanding real-world asset (RWA) tokenization market. Separately, Strive, led by Vivek Ramaswamy, plans to purchase more Bitcoin. The firm has steadily accumulated BTC even during bear markets, with its balance sheet now approaching 20,000 BTC, signaling sustained institutional demand.
Thailand Tightens Stablecoin AML Rules
Thailand is strengthening anti-money laundering surveillance on large cash deposits and stablecoin transactions. Individuals depositing cash exceeding 5 million baht (about $150,000) will need to prove the source of funds. The measures expand compliance obligations for banks on cash handling, large currency exchanges, precious metal trades, and suspicious stablecoin transactions. The central bank and Securities and Exchange Commission will conduct joint inspections focused on Tether to identify and block illicit fund flows. Authorities will require banks to report suspicious transaction patterns such as rapid digital payments and same-day physical withdrawals.