Israel shared intelligence with the United States on July 9 about an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate President Donald Trump, triggering a sharp but temporary sell-off in crypto markets. Bitcoin and ether both dropped more than 2% as the news broke, before recovering in subsequent trading sessions. The disclosure coincided with Trump's declaration that the ceasefire with Iran was "over," escalating geopolitical tensions.
Intelligence disclosure and market jolt
The Wall Street Journal first reported that Israel passed specific intelligence to Washington regarding the alleged assassination plot. CNN and other outlets confirmed the warning, though no details about the plot's methods or timeline have been released. The development follows a 2024 incident where the US charged an individual linked to an Iranian plot against Trump, suggesting an escalation of existing threats. The intelligence sharing came amid US airstrikes on Iranian positions near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supply.
Crypto and oil react
BTC and ETH both shed more than 2% in the immediate aftermath of the news, reflecting a classic risk-off response. Oil prices surged as traders priced in potential supply disruptions. Institutional investors moved toward cash or treasuries, reinforcing the bearish pressure on digital assets. The drops were sharp but short-lived, with prices rebounding in later sessions.
Strait of Hormuz and inflation fears
The Strait of Hormuz dimension amplifies the market impact. Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply passes through that waterway, and sustained military operations there could push energy prices significantly higher. Higher oil prices feed into inflation expectations, reducing the likelihood of central bank rate cuts. Tighter liquidity conditions historically create headwinds for crypto prices. Unlike the 2024 incident, which remained in the legal sphere, the combination of active military strikes, a dissolved ceasefire, and fresh assassination intelligence creates a fundamentally different risk profile for investors.