President Donald Trump signed two executive orders on Monday that push federal agencies toward quantum-resistant encryption and a powerful quantum computer, reviving debate about quantum threats to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. The cryptography order sets a 2031 deadline for post-quantum standards, while a companion order targets quantum computing development over the next five years.
What the Orders Mandate
The cryptography order accelerates a previous 2035 deadline from the 2022 National Security Memorandum-10, requiring federal systems to adopt post-quantum cryptography for key establishment by the end of 2030. High-impact systems must migrate digital signatures to new standards by the end of 2031. The Commerce Department and NIST are tasked with a pilot migration project, aiming to convert federal systems by the end of 2027, while CISA supports critical infrastructure operators.
The companion order, titled “Ushering in the Next Frontier of Quantum Innovation,” launches a national push for a quantum computer capable of major scientific work, along with quantum sensors and networks over the next five years. Officials frame the cryptography order around the “harvest now, decrypt later” threat, where adversaries store encrypted data today to unlock it with future quantum machines.
Implications for Crypto
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) rely on elliptic-curve signatures that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer running Shor's algorithm could break, deriving private keys from public keys visible on-chain. This risk, often called Q-Day, gains a firmer government deadline through the orders, though the timeline gives developers room to respond.
Defensive tools already exist. NIST finalized three post-quantum standards on August 13, 2024, including ML-DSA for digital signatures. Bitcoin contributors have discussed a quantum migration plan and quantum-safe soft forks, but few researchers see urgency. A 2022 University of Sussex study estimated about 1.9 billion physical qubits are needed to break a key within Bitcoin's block window, while Google's Willow chip held just 105 qubits in December 2024.
Markets showed no immediate reaction. Bitcoin traded near $64,200 and Ethereum near $1,730, each up about 1% over 24 hours. The orders set deadlines for government systems, not decentralized networks, and Washington holds a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve established in March 2025. Whether Bitcoin's contributors move as fast as federal agencies remains an open question.