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US producer price inflation fell more than expected in June, with headline PPI dropping to 5.5% year-over-year versus the 6.2% consensus, prompting Bitcoin to reclaim $65,000 and Ethereum to top $1,900 as traders slashed bets on a July Federal Reserve rate hike. The CME FedWatch tool now shows an 87.7% probability of a rate hold, with hike odds collapsing to 12.3% from 31% a week ago.
PPI Data Reinforces Disinflation Trend
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline PPI came in at 5.5% year-over-year, well below the 6.2% consensus forecast. Core PPI also eased to 4.7% against a 5.2% expectation. On a monthly basis, PPI dropped 0.3% — the first monthly decline since August 2025 and the sharpest since April 2025. May's monthly rise was revised down from 1.1% to 0.6%.
Energy prices drove much of the relief, with gasoline falling 12% in June, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the 1.4% slide in final demand goods. Even after that drop, gasoline remains nearly 43% higher than a year earlier. Services inflation held firmer, with trade margins up 0.4%. The soft PPI print follows a similar consumer inflation surprise a day earlier, strengthening the case for lower Treasury yields and supporting risk assets like equities and cryptocurrencies.
Fed Hike Odds Collapse, Crypto Rallies
CME FedWatch data now indicates an 87.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% at its July 29 meeting. Hike odds dropped to 12.3%, a sharp reversal from a week ago when markets saw a 31% chance of a hike. The central bank held rates steady at Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting in June, citing inflation risks from artificial intelligence spending. Warsh struck a harder tone in congressional testimony a day before the PPI release, stating the central bank has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation."
Bitcoin traded near $65,256 after the data, up 2.5% in 24 hours, while Ethereum gained 3.6% to $1,930 — its first move above $1,900 since early June. The rebound liquidated nearly $100 million in crypto shorts within 30 minutes, echoing a similar short squeeze in early July when weak jobs data drove Bitcoin to the $62,000 area. The total crypto market cap has added nearly $250 billion in the first 15 days of July.
Risks Remain: Energy and Geopolitics
Despite the relief rally, the disinflation story may prove fragile. Gasoline drove much of June's decline, and oil has pushed above $85 after President Donald Trump announced a Strait of Hormuz blockade on Monday. The waterway carries about one-fifth of the world's oil, and a hotter energy print could stall the disinflation trend as soon as next month. The next test for Bitcoin sits at the $66,000 resistance zone that has capped gains since mid-June.