Bitcoin may slide to $59,000 in the near term as summer liquidity evaporates and macro headwinds mount, according to a Wednesday note from Wintermute's OTC trading desk shared with CoinDesk. The major market-making firm sees both bitcoin and ether grinding toward the lower end of their recent ranges, caught between last week's hawkish Federal Reserve and the stop-start headlines around Iran.
Options markets are pricing relatively tight moves for the next 24 hours. Wintermute's one-day straddle, a measure of expected swing derived from options pricing, puts bitcoin in a $61,242 to $63,563 range and ether between $1,606 and $1,694, implying moves of about 1.9% and 2.7% respectively.
Deteriorating backdrop
The broader environment is worsening. Token correlations are rising, meaning assets are moving together rather than on their own fundamentals, while liquidity is thinning into the summer months with no fresh institutional bid visible in ETF flows. Wintermute flagged $59,000 as the level to watch, calling it the bear market low and the key support if current pressure continues.
Three catalysts this week
Three events shape the rest of the week: the U.S.-Iran peace deal and whether it holds, Thursday's PCE inflation print—the Fed's preferred measure of price growth—and the quarterly options expiry at month-end, which can amplify moves as traders roll or close large positions.