Andy Burnham has secured enough Labour MP nominations and trade union backing to become the next prime minister, moving into Number 10 on Monday. But the quieter battle for Number 11 Downing Street — who he appoints as chancellor — continues, with the choice set to signal his economic priorities to politicians and bond markets alike.
The contenders for chancellor
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has long been seen as the frontrunner, given his economics background, Treasury advisory role under Gordon Brown, and chairmanship of the Council of Economic Advisers. Supporters argue he can make the Treasury work for Burnham’s growth agenda and would be in lock-step on spreading prosperity to every postcode. They stress his adherence to fiscal rules, with one backer insisting “he isn’t Che Guevara.”
Yet in recent days, MPs close to Burnham believe the likelihood of appointing Miliband has lessened significantly. Unions representing oil and gas workers distrust Miliband’s instincts, and Sir Keir Starmer’s cost-of-living tsar Lord Walker, boss of Iceland, has warned that an “ideological” chancellor would cause bond markets to “freak out.”
Other names and a broader strategy
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper are also under consideration. Mahmood lacks an economics background but could reassure markets as a figure from the party’s right. A senior source says the decision is not yet “clear cut,” with “live discussions” ongoing.
Burnham has also been advised by former Goldman Sachs chief economist Lord Jim O’Neill and ex-Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane. Both hail from northern England and have championed regional growth. If Burnham sees the Treasury as a brake on that mission, his Number 10 operation — beefed up with figures like Haigh and possibly O’Neill and Haldane — might take a stronger grip on economic policy, reducing the need for a Treasury heavyweight like Miliband.
Timing and uncertainty
No cabinet announcements are expected until Monday, when Burnham moves into Number 10. His camp emphasises no final decision has been taken, but with D-Day approaching, choices must be made privately if not publicly very soon. The outcome will shape not just the Treasury’s direction but the entire government’s approach to growth and fiscal discipline.