A new strategy note from CITIC Securities warns that the second half of 2026 will bring a concentrated wave of lockup expirations in Hong Kong's IPO market, with September posing the greatest pressure. The broker advises investors to monitor stocks with high lockup-expiration ratios and sector leaders whose share unlock could trigger short-term price volatility.
IPO and lockup trends
CITIC's analysis of historical data shows that fundraising activity in Hong Kong generally follows a pro-cyclical pattern, with no clear negative correlation between equity offerings and broader market trends. The note argues that financing events themselves are not catalysts for market tops; under certain macroeconomic conditions, they can even support further upside. However, the broker cautions that large fundraising peaks occurring at elevated market levels still warrant vigilance.
Comparing IPO and lockup expiration events, CITIC finds that the latter tends to have a more pronounced negative impact on stock prices. The effect is largely confined to individual stocks rather than the entire market, with market capitalization and the proportion of shares unlocked identified as the two key determinants of post-lockup performance.
Sector and timing outlook
Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, CITIC expects IPO momentum to remain strong, driven by a high number of companies that have submitted applications and are queuing for listing. At the same time, the lockup expiration calendar is heavily concentrated in September, with software services and gold & precious metals sectors facing the largest volumes. The broker recommends focusing on stocks with high lockup-expiration ratios and monitoring short-term disruptions from sector leaders' share unlocks.