Mark Yusko, founder of Morgan Creek Capital, has compared SpaceX's $2 trillion valuation to Dogecoin, warning that the company's upcoming IPO lockup expiry could trigger a severe selloff. Speaking to Cointelegraph, the Bitcoin bull argued that SpaceX shares are vastly overpriced and that the company's earnings potential cannot justify its current market value.
A 'mathematical impossibility'
Yusko said the valuation of SpaceX, along with those of AI firms Anthropic and OpenAI, is "beyond silly" relative to their earnings power. He calculated that to deliver a 10x return on a $2 trillion valuation, SpaceX would need to generate roughly half of the projected U.S. GDP in ten years — a feat he called "a mathematical impossibility." His comments come as SpaceX shares have fallen nearly 28% in the past month and more than 12% in the last five days, trading below their IPO opening price.
Lockup expiry and selling pressure
Yusko warned that the real pain may still be ahead. "I think, ultimately, as the lockup expires and the people try to sell, I think that goes down a lot. Like, a lot, a lot," he said. He dismissed investor comparisons to Microsoft or Amazon, noting that both tech giants had tiny market caps when they went public. Instead, he likened SpaceX's IPO strategy to Elon Musk's playbook with Tesla — floating a small number of shares, building hype, and engineering a short squeeze.
A 'cult' stock?
Yusko drew a direct parallel to Dogecoin, saying that Musk and Mark Cuban own most of the coins, and a "cult" of retail investors holds the rest. "If Elon sold one Doge, Doge would go to zero," he said. He accused Musk of "stuffing this overpriced security into mom and pops' retirement accounts" so that he and his venture capital backers can cash out. With only 4% of SpaceX shares floated and 46% owned by Musk himself, Yusko called the arrangement "theft."