Ethereum broke out of a long-term descending trendline on July 14, with futures open interest surging to $19.8 billion and long liquidation dominance falling to a yearly low of 4%, signaling a potential short squeeze. ETH traded near $1,928, up 5.2% in the past 24 hours, but declining volume leaves the breakout unconfirmed above the $1,900–$2,000 resistance zone.
Futures Open Interest Nears $20 Billion
Data from Glassnode shows that Ethereum futures open interest across all exchanges hit $19.8 billion on July 14, the highest since June 3. Open interest had collapsed to roughly $15.5 billion in late June, and its sharp recovery alongside a rising price suggests new capital is entering the market rather than just short covering. Whale trader Machi Big Brother reportedly opened a $24.3 million ETH long position with 25x leverage, placing liquidation at $1,833. Positive funding rates on Ethereum further support the bullish positioning.
Long Liquidations at Yearly Low Signal Short Squeeze
The composition of recent liquidations reinforces the bullish case. Long liquidation dominance fell to 4%, its lowest level in a year, meaning only 4% of liquidated positions were longs while 96% were shorts forced out as the price rose. However, squeeze-driven rallies can be exaggerated, as seen during the June 3 deleveraging event. For the move to hold, spot demand must follow. A return of long liquidation dominance above 50% would weaken the momentum signal.
Price Holds Key Support from 2022 Bottom
On the weekly chart, an ascending trendline drawn from the June 2022 bottom held near $1,600 once again. The bounce occurred inside a long-term green demand zone that has served as support four times since early 2023, coinciding with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the entire cycle at $1,754. This triple confluence of trendline, horizontal support, and Fibonacci level makes the zone a structural line in the sand. The next major resistance sits at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of $2,438.
ETH Price Prediction as $2,000 Test Looms
On the daily chart, Monday's 6.5% green candle broke above a descending trendline that had been in place since the all-time high and had rejected ETH five times prior. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) also broke its own descending trendline from July 2025 and now sits just below 65. One warning sign remains: volume has been declining during the recovery, so the breakout lacks confirmation from participation. Analysts watching the ETH/BTC ratio see early signs of a broader Ethereum comeback that could fill the missing demand.
Immediate resistance lies between $1,900 and $2,000. A confirmed daily close above that zone on rising volume could open the way toward $2,438, nearly 30% above the current price. On the downside, $1,754 is the critical support. Losing it would expose the trendline near $1,600, and a weekly close below that level would invalidate the bullish structure entirely.