Ethereum is trading around $1,780 as traders await U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve signals, with a breakout above $1,850 potentially triggering short liquidations and opening a path toward $2,200. The second-largest cryptocurrency has remained below $1,800, briefly dipping to $1,770 after geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation concerns ahead of the June CPI release and Paul Warsh's congressional testimony. Analysts continue to back the bullish setup while $1,750 remains Ethereum's key support.
Technical Setup Points to $2,200 Target
The daily chart shows Ethereum forming a double-bottom pattern after rebounding from June lows, with price sitting directly beneath horizontal resistance near $1,846, which coincides with the pattern's neckline. A successful breakout projects a measured move toward approximately $2,198. The Aroon indicator favors buyers as the bullish line holds above 90%, while Chaikin Money Flow has moved back into positive territory, suggesting capital has gradually returned after weeks of distribution.
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum continues to trade above the Supertrend support near $1,756, preserving the recent sequence of higher lows. However, the MACD histogram has weakened, and the MACD line has slipped beneath its signal line, showing that upside momentum has slowed as price approaches resistance. Analyst Ali Martinez noted, "I'm going LONG on Ethereum $ETH if it breaks $1,850," aligning with the neckline resistance visible on the daily chart. Another analyst, Ted Pillows, commented that "$ETH held above its $1,750 support zone" and believes the next major move could develop to the upside as long as that floor remains intact.
Macro Risks Could Derail Recovery
Even with the improving chart structure, macro conditions continue to dictate short-term direction. Ethereum has struggled to sustain rallies throughout 2026 as persistent spot ETF outflows, weaker network fee revenue following the Dencun upgrade, and competition from faster Layer-1 networks have weighed on investor demand. Ethereum's annual issuance has also returned to positive territory after reduced fee burns weakened the network's deflationary narrative.
A stronger-than-expected inflation print or renewed escalation in the Middle East could strengthen the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, reducing appetite for crypto assets. From a technical perspective, losing the $1,750-$1,756 support region would invalidate the current bullish setup and increase the probability of a retreat toward $1,680, with deeper demand waiting near the psychologically important $1,500 level. Conversely, a confirmed break above $1,850 could trigger liquidations across leveraged short positions and shift attention toward the $1,900 area before the projected move toward $2,198 comes into focus.