Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee is urging investors to watch the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio as a potential signal that the broader crypto market may be turning around. In a July 13 post ahead of his WebX 2026 keynote in Tokyo, Lee described ETH/BTC as a “signal of a revival of crypto,” pointing to the pair’s recent recovery from early June lows.
ETH/BTC tests key resistance
The ETH/BTC ratio measures how much Bitcoin one Ether can buy. A rising ratio indicates Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin, while a falling ratio suggests Bitcoin is leading. After hitting a local low near 0.026 BTC in early June, the pair has climbed toward 0.02858 BTC. Live prices later placed the ratio around 0.0282 BTC, still close to the resistance area near 0.0286 BTC that has capped several recovery attempts.
A clean break above 0.0286 could extend Ethereum’s relative rebound, while another rejection might send the pair back toward support at 0.027 BTC and the June floor near 0.026 BTC. Despite the recent uptick, ETH/BTC remains lower over the past three months, reflecting Ether’s steeper decline through much of 2026. Stronger Bitcoin ETF demand, weaker Ethereum fund flows, and competition from other networks have contributed to that gap. A sustained rise above resistance would mark a change from that pattern, but not yet a confirmed long-term reversal.
Bitcoin dominance and altcoin measures shift
Lee’s call comes as Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market has eased from recent highs. CoinGecko placed Bitcoin dominance near 56.2%, down from earlier peaks. A falling dominance rate can indicate capital rotating into Ether and other digital assets, though stablecoin values and different market baskets can alter the reading. The Altcoin Season Index has also improved to around 58, still below the 75 threshold typically used to define a full altcoin season. The rise shows that more large altcoins have started to outperform Bitcoin, but it does not confirm a market-wide shift, as many smaller tokens remain well below their 2025 highs.
ETF demand and BitMine buying provide support
Fund flows present another test for Ethereum. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs returned to daily net inflows in early July after weeks of pressure, taking in about $14.9 million on July 1 led by BlackRock’s ETHA. One positive day does not erase June’s outflows, so traders need a steadier run of demand. Ethereum’s staking rate has also crossed 33%, reducing liquid supply available for sale. Corporate buying adds another source of support: BitMine reported its Ethereum treasury reached 5.74 million ETH, about 4.8% of total supply.
Lee has linked Ethereum’s outlook to stablecoin growth, tokenized assets, and clearer U.S. regulations, but those claims remain forward-looking. For now, ETH/BTC must hold its recovery and break resistance before Lee’s “revival” view gains stronger market confirmation.