The coming week brings a trio of major events for stock market investors: FedEx earnings on Tuesday, May PCE inflation data on Thursday, and Micron's quarterly report on Wednesday. Each carries unique complexities that could drive sector moves.
FedEx earnings amid spin-off and calendar shift
FedEx reports fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results on Tuesday evening, covering March through May. The print is unusually complicated because it will include both FedEx and the newly independent FedEx Freight, which began trading on June 1. FedEx is also switching to a calendar fiscal year ending in December, moving away from its June-to-May cycle. The combination of the spin-off and the calendar change makes year-over-year comparisons difficult, and management is known for conservative guidance. The market may need time to digest the numbers, so the initial stock reaction could be misleading. Analysts expect revenue of $24.04 billion and earnings per share of $5.96, according to LSEG. Investors will focus on profitability metrics and CEO Raj Subramaniam's commentary on the streamlined company's direction, including any update on stock buybacks. FedEx Freight will hold its own investor day on Thursday, where executives led by CEO John Smith are expected to discuss Q4 results and the outlook for the rest of the year. The consensus for FedEx Freight is $2.26 billion in sales and EPS of $1.53.
May PCE inflation data and oil's impact
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index for May, is due Thursday morning. This release follows Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's more hawkish tone at his first press conference. The May CPI came in at a three-year high of 4.2%, driven largely by Iran war-related energy price spikes. However, oil prices have since plunged, with WTI crude settling around $76 a barrel, down from the upper $90s and low $100s seen in May. If these lower prices hold, they could provide significant relief on inflation in coming months, potentially reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate hike later this year. The PCE data will still offer insight into other price pressures like housing and healthcare, but oil has been the dominant driver recently. The key to sustaining this trend is progress toward a durable resolution in the Middle East, as Iran claimed over the weekend it had closed the Strait of Hormuz, a claim the U.S. denied.
Micron earnings and AI memory demand
Micron reports on Wednesday, and its results have broad implications for the AI trade. The company has seen a windfall from soaring prices for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips used in AI servers, with its stock up over 800% in the past 12 months. HBM demand far outstrips supply, benefiting Micron along with rivals SK Hynix and Samsung. Higher memory costs have already prompted Meta to raise its 2026 capex guidance by 8% to $135 billion, and Microsoft to include a $25 billion impact from component pricing in its $190 billion capex plan. Investors will focus on Micron's pricing commentary, updates on new manufacturing capacity, and any additional multiyear supply agreements. In March, Micron signed its first five-year supply deal, and such long-term contracts are becoming more common in the memory industry. The results will also affect chipmakers like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Intel, as well as data center spenders such as Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet.