August Nymex natural gas futures (NGQ26) settled at +0.020 (+0.69%) on Wednesday, July 15, 2026, as forecasts for above-average temperatures across the northern United States through July 19 are expected to boost electricity demand for air conditioning, driving up natural gas consumption.
Weather-Driven Demand
The Commodity Weather Group reported Wednesday that its forecasts shifted hotter, with above-average temperatures expected across most of the northern US through July 19. This outlook is likely to increase natural gas demand from power plants, which burn the fuel to generate electricity for cooling. The Edison Electric Institute reported that US lower-48 electricity output in the week ended July 4 rose 7.73% year-over-year to 100,996 GWh, and the 52-week total rose 2.33% to 4,345,875 GWh, indicating robust power demand.
Supply and Inventory Factors
A bearish medium-term factor is speculation that a powerful El Niño system could bring warmer-than-normal temperatures to the Northern Hemisphere this fall and winter, potentially reducing heating demand for natural gas. On the supply side, US lower-48 dry gas production stood at 111.2 bcf/day on Wednesday, up 3.2% year-over-year, according to BNEF. The EIA last Tuesday raised its 2026 US dry gas production forecast to 111.2 bcf/day from a June estimate of 111.0 bcf/day, which is negative for prices. However, medium-term support comes from the outlook for tighter global LNG supplies after a March 19 attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan plant, the world's largest LNG export facility, damaged 17% of its capacity—damage that will take three to five years to repair. Ras Laffan accounts for about 20% of global LNG supply, and its reduced output could boost US nat-gas exports.
Weekly Inventory and Rig Count
The consensus ahead of Thursday's EIA report is for a storage build of +44 bcf for the week ended July 10, close to the five-year average of +45 bcf. Last week's EIA report showed inventories rose by +61 bcf for the week ended July 3, matching expectations but above the five-year average of +51 bcf. As of July 3, inventories were 0.8% below year-ago levels but 6.6% above the five-year seasonal average, signaling adequate supplies. In Europe, gas storage was 52% full as of July 13, compared to the five-year seasonal average of 68%. Baker Hughes reported that the active US nat-gas drilling rig count remained unchanged at 126 rigs in the week ending July 10, moderately below the 2.5-year high of 134 set in February 2026.