Solana (SOL) has climbed back above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), gaining about 4% in the past day to trade above $76.82. The move reflects a broader recovery in risk appetite across crypto markets, but institutional demand via spot ETFs remains conspicuously absent.
Futures activity picks up while funding stays positive
According to Coinglass, Solana futures open interest held steady at around $4.91 billion on March 15, indicating that existing leveraged positions were not quickly unwound. Meanwhile, futures volume rose 15% to roughly $6.9 billion, signaling heightened trading activity. The funding rate remained positive at 0.0040%, suggesting that long-position demand is growing, particularly among retail traders who appear increasingly bullish on SOL's short-term prospects.
Institutional caution persists as ETF inflows stall
In contrast to retail optimism, institutional investors have stayed on the sidelines. SoSo Value data shows that Solana spot ETFs recorded zero net inflows for two consecutive days this week, even as the price bounced. This divergence between retail enthusiasm and institutional wariness puts the sustainability of SOL's rebound under scrutiny.
Technical levels to watch: $81.50 is the line in the sand
From a technical perspective, reclaiming the 50-day EMA at $76.82 is a positive signal. SOL is also trading above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $76.92, calculated from the drop between $98.41 and $60.13. However, the downtrend line near $81.50 remains a formidable resistance. A decisive daily close above that level could open the path toward $88.56 and eventually the 200-day EMA at $94.52. The RSI sits at 54, not yet overbought but showing gradually strengthening buying pressure, while the MACD is flirting with a bullish crossover near the signal line. On the downside, losing the 50-day EMA again could lead to a retest of $68.88 and potentially $60.13. Whether SOL's recent bounce turns into a trend reversal hinges on breaking through $81.50.