Short sellers have piled into SpaceX (SPCX) since its June 2026 IPO, pushing bearish bets to roughly 29% of the company's public float, or about $25 billion, according to data from S3 Partners. The stock has fallen around 20% since its debut and recently traded near its $135 IPO price, briefly dipping below that level. With a major lockup expiration approaching and the 13th Starship test flight scheduled for Thursday, traders are bracing for heightened volatility.
Short Sellers Swarm After IPO Slide
SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026, at $135 per share, but the stock quickly lost momentum. By mid-July, shares were hovering between $134 and $136, erasing the initial pop. The weakness attracted a wave of short selling. S3 Partners reported that short interest surged from roughly 40 million shares (5%–7% of float) three weeks ago to about 185 million shares today, representing a $25 billion bearish wager.
"Since the IPO, we have seen short sellers building speculative positions," said Matthew Unterman, head of research at S3 Partners. The rapid buildup suggests deep skepticism about SpaceX's near-term valuation.
Lockup Expirations Loom Over Shares
SpaceX's public float is tiny — only about 5% of its roughly 13 billion total shares were sold in the IPO. The rest remain locked up. The first major unlocking is expected around the second-quarter earnings report, when about 11% of total shares become eligible for sale. Thereafter, roughly 4% of shares will unlock every 70 days, tied to performance milestones. Founder Elon Musk's 42% stake remains locked until June 2027, so he poses no immediate selling risk.
Starship Test Flight as a Catalyst
With short interest elevated and lockup pressure building, the 13th Starship test flight on Thursday could be a pivotal event. A successful launch might force short sellers to cover, while a failure could accelerate selling. Investors are watching closely for any signal that could break the current stalemate.