The probability of the US Clarity Act becoming law by December 31, 2026, has dropped to a record low of 32% on the prediction market Polymarket, down from over 80% in February. The decline reflects growing concerns over stalled Senate negotiations, particularly around ethics provisions, and a shrinking legislative calendar before the August recess.
Ethics clause stalls progress
The main obstacle is the ethics clause, which would restrict top government officials—including the president, vice president, and members of Congress—from profiting from crypto-related businesses while in office. President Trump's financial disclosure, which revealed over $1 billion in crypto-related income, has intensified Democratic demands for stricter language. Several Democratic senators, including Chris Van Hollen, Chris Murphy, and Jeff Merkley, have said they will oppose the bill unless the ethics issue is resolved. Even committee supporters like Senators Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks have conditioned their floor votes on an ethics agreement.
Senate clock ticks down
The Senate returned from recess on July 13 but has only about four weeks before the August 7 break. Competing with the Clarity Act is the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which will also require floor time. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, noted that the overlapping schedules make the path to a vote increasingly uncertain. He added that the next four weeks are likely the last realistic window to pass the bill this congressional session. Meanwhile, Kristin Smith of the Solana Policy Institute said momentum for a floor vote is building as progress is made on remaining issues.
Republican vote count hit by McConnell's absence
Securing the 60 votes needed for passage requires Democratic support, but the Republican side has also taken a hit. Senator Mitch McConnell, who has been effectively absent from legislative activity since a fall and hospitalization on June 14, is a critical vote and a key procedural strategist. His absence not only reduces the Republican tally but also removes a skilled negotiator at a delicate stage. The updated bill text, merging drafts from the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees, was expected this week but remains unpublished as of July 18, leaving industry observers scrambling to assess the state of play.