The United States and Israel have launched a military strategy in the Gulf of Oman, named "Operación Furia Épica," aimed at degrading Iran's nuclear program and missile capabilities, particularly around the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The campaign follows Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and has reportedly succeeded in weakening Iran's naval and aerial defense systems. Market participants are now pricing in a sharply reduced likelihood of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by mid-2026.
Market odds plummet amid escalation
Prediction markets currently show only a 0.5% probability of a nuclear deal by the end of July, down from 1% a day earlier. For a deal by the end of September, markets peg the chance at 12.5%, a decline from earlier in the month. The overall odds of a deal by August 13, 2026, stand at just 1.6% YES, reflecting a consistent drop in optimism as military tensions mount. The breakdown of prior ceasefire agreements and the new joint military campaign are seen as key factors driving this sentiment.
Key indicators to watch
The situation remains fluid, with traders closely monitoring further military or diplomatic actions. Public statements from negotiators such as Abbas Araghchi or Steve Witkoff could shift sentiment, as could any announcements on sanctions or uranium enrichment. Further escalations or a new ceasefire agreement would also significantly impact pricing. The market's current pricing suggests that diplomatic resolution is seen as increasingly unlikely in the near term, with military strategy dominating the outlook.