The United States has repositioned refueling aircraft in preparation for potential strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, according to reports. The deployment of additional KC-135 and KC-46 tankers to Israel brings the total to roughly 90, signaling a possible expansion of the air campaign in the ongoing 2026 Iran–United States war.
Escalation after ceasefire collapse
The move follows the breakdown of a fragile ceasefire after Iran attacked U.S. bases. President Donald Trump declared the interim agreement over, and the U.S. now appears to be shifting toward broader military action aimed at neutralizing Iran's nuclear capabilities. The buildup of aerial refueling capacity is a key indicator of increased airstrike readiness.
Market odds on blockade end
Prediction markets currently price only a 7.5% chance that the U.S. will announce an end to the Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026. The low probability reflects expectations that the Trump administration will continue its strategy of compelling Iran to capitulate through overwhelming force. Iran has dismissed U.S. actions as psychological warfare.
What to watch
Observers are monitoring official U.S. announcements on the blockade and potential Iranian retaliation. Statements from President Trump and Supreme Leader Khamenei could shift market odds. The situation remains fluid, with military engagements and diplomatic moves likely to affect the perceived likelihood of a blockade lift in the near term.