XRP is showing technical signs that a return to the $2 level remains possible, even after a sharp pullback from its 2026 highs above $3. The Bollinger Bands indicator on TradingView has produced a configuration that historically precedes upward moves, suggesting the token's ambitious price target is not out of reach.
Oversold Conditions and Key Support Hold
The current week has been stressful for XRP holders. On the weekly chart, the price dipped to $1.1018, nearly touching the lower Bollinger Band at $1.0562. However, this local storm reveals an interesting picture: the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 33.78, indicating extremely oversold conditions. Sellers are nearing exhaustion, and a strong rebound could be imminent.
On the monthly timeframe, there is no sign of panic. Buyers are confidently holding the crucial Bollinger Bands midline, the 20-period simple moving average (SMA), at $1.1039. As long as this monthly support remains intact, the broader bullish trend has not been broken. The monthly RSI near 41.87 gives the price considerable room for growth before hitting overbought territory.
Institutional Inflows and Regulatory Tailwinds
The technical compression on the charts has coincided with a strong news backdrop in early July, helping keep the token afloat. While retail traders are locking in losses, institutional investors are doing the opposite. XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded capital inflows for nine consecutive weeks, bringing their total assets under management to $1.49 billion.
Ripple is also strengthening its legal position. Receiving a full CASP license in Luxembourg under Europe's MiCA framework has given XRP and RLUSD regulated access to the banking sector across all 27 EU member states. The US CLARITY Act is also approaching, and investors are already pricing it into their expectations. Additionally, on-chain data shows that autonomous AI agents have begun using native XRP for direct settlements, creating genuine utility-driven demand that has already exceeded one million transactions.
Path to $2: Resistance Levels to Watch
The market reality in July 2026 is simple — the path to $2 will not be easy, but the technical foundation is in place, and the Bollinger Bands confirm it. The bulls' immediate task is to keep the weekly candle above the psychological level of $1.10. The first major resistance on the upside will be the weekly Bollinger Bands midline at $1.3021. Once this level is broken, XRP will enter a clear technical corridor through $1.54 and toward the $2.00 target.