Multiple XRP (XRP) indicators point to a potential 25% relief rally toward $1.40 in July, driven by a rare death cross setup and heavy short liquidation liquidity. As of Monday, XRP traded near $1.13, with analysts also eyeing a longer-term rebound toward $8 if a broader bottoming pattern plays out.
Death cross and mean-reversion setup
XRP’s 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) around $1.40 is on the verge of crossing below its 200-week EMA near $1.39, a rare death cross. Historically, such crosses have been followed by relief rebounds back toward the 200-week EMA — including a 20% recovery in 2019 and an 82.7% rally in 2022. A similar mean-reversion move this time would target the $1.39–$1.40 area, implying roughly 23%–25% upside from current levels by July.
The weekly relative strength index (RSI) also supports the case, hovering just above the oversold threshold of 30. Readings near that level typically suggest sellers are losing momentum, raising the odds of a short-term bounce even if the broader trend remains weak.
Liquidation data adds fuel
Binance XRP/USDT liquidation heatmap data shows a heavy concentration of short liquidation liquidity above the current price, with the largest upside cluster of around $236.5 million sitting in the $1.37–$1.40 zone. If XRP starts rebounding, short sellers positioned above spot could be forced to buy back exposure, accelerating a move toward that area.
Long-term target near $8
Analyst Cryptollica points to a broader bottoming setup on the 10-day chart, where XRP’s RSI is near the low-30s — a level seen only three times in 13 years. The chart also shows XRP trading above the lower boundary of a giant ascending channel that has connected macro lows since 2017, currently near $0.75. In previous cycles, tests of this support preceded major upside expansions, with the channel’s upper boundary putting a long-term target near $8 in focus.