XRP Stuck in Range as $1.20 Breakout Remains Elusive
XRP has successfully defended the $1.00 support level, but it continues to trade in a tight range between $1.08 and $1.12, unable to breach the key resistance at $1.20. The $1.00–$1.05 zone has proven to be a solid floor, surviving repeated selling pressure, which keeps the bullish scenario alive. However, the market is waiting for a clear catalyst to drive a breakout.
On-chain data shows a positive sign: the amount of XRP leaving exchanges has increased from about 41 million to 123 million tokens. This suggests investors are moving coins to external wallets rather than keeping them on exchanges for sale, typically interpreted as reduced selling pressure. Yet this alone is not enough to confirm a price rally.
Technical Indicators Show Mixed Signals
Technically, the $1.18 level is a critical resistance, where the 50-day moving average and prior supply zones converge. A clear break above $1.18 could open the door to $1.20–$1.25. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, indicating no strong buying momentum, while the MACD has turned positive, signaling that selling pressure is easing. This creates an ambiguous balance: the decline is slowing, but a trend reversal is not yet confirmed.
Regulatory Catalyst and Institutional Demand
Market participants are watching the U.S. CLARITY Act, a regulatory bill that could reduce crypto uncertainty if it advances in the Senate this month. Progress could boost sentiment for XRP and the broader market, while further delays would likely prolong the current range-bound trading. Prediction markets currently show roughly equal odds of XRP breaking $1.20 or falling back to $1.00 this month.
Institutional demand remains steady, with spot XRP ETFs seeing consistent inflows and Ripple's global partnerships supporting sentiment. However, repeated selling walls near $1.20 have prevented a decisive move higher. The more traders expect a breakout, the stronger the resistance tends to become.
Key Levels to Watch
If XRP breaks above $1.18, the next targets are $1.25–$1.30. Conversely, a loss of the $1.00 support could lead to a drop toward $0.87 and possibly $0.80. For now, the market favors a wait-and-see approach until a clear breakout or breakdown occurs.