A year after launch, the XRP Ledger's EVM sidechain holds just $25,741 in total value locked — a fraction of the $600 million to $12 billion projected by its developers. The chain is technically live, audited, and upgraded, but has attracted almost no users or capital, with zero trading volume over the past seven days. The result underscores that EVM compatibility alone does not guarantee demand.
A promise of billions, a reality of thousands
In June 2025, the team behind the XRPL EVM sidechain published projections comparing its potential to Polygon's contribution to Ethereum, which brought $2 billion to $6 billion in TVL. They estimated an uplift of $600 million to $12 billion for XRP, claiming 90 entities were building and testnet activity had drawn new developers. The sidechain launched on June 30, 2025, built by Ripple, Peersyst, and Cosmos contributors, using a Cosmos SDK with EVM compatibility and an Axelar bridge. XRP serves as the native gas token, with proof-of-authority consensus targeting 1,000 transactions per second at low fees.
One year later, DefiLlama data as of July 14, 2026, shows TVL of $25,741. The largest protocol, DEX XRiSE33 Network, holds $11,909; the second, launchpad Riddle, holds $8,831. Moai Finance, the only protocol with any meaningful history, has recorded $95,008 in cumulative spot volume since launch and now holds $1,117. Over 24 hours, chain fees and revenue are zero; DEX volume is zero; over seven days, volume is also zero. The low end of the projection was $600 million — the actual figure is a rounding error.
What was built, and what was not
The technical side delivered. The chain runs Cosmos EVM v0.4.1, supports Solidity contracts, IBC transfers, and ERC-20 mint/burn, with audits and upgrades like v11 for economic security. Infrastructure includes Band Protocol oracles, Grove RPC endpoints, and Squid cross-chain interface. But the promised ecosystem failed to materialize. At launch, Strobe (lending), Securd (collateralized leverage), and Vertex (derivatives) were announced — covering core DeFi categories. None of them now hold capital on the chain. The only active protocols are two DEXs and a launchpad, with no credit or derivatives markets to retain funds.
The decline is stark. Six weeks after launch, TVL was $100,818; today it is $25,741, a loss of about three-quarters. Developer count was 168 against Ethereum's 8,448. Multi-chain protocols like Midas RWA and Hyperithm list support but report zero TVL. Moai's $95,008 cumulative volume over a year is minuscule for a token with a $68 billion market cap. The entire sidechain TVL is worth less than 24,000 XRP — a fraction of Ripple's monthly escrow release of 1 billion tokens.
The result inverts the usual crypto failure narrative: the technology shipped on time and works, but no one came. The XRPL mainnet saw institutional growth in the same period, but permissionless EVM DeFi failed to gain traction. The lesson is that infrastructure without existing user demand, or a clear reason to switch from dominant chains like Ethereum, cannot create value on its own.